Thursday, April 19, 2007

The Pentagon's New Map: War and peace in 21st century

I think this Thomas Barnett's book is a must read for all the futurist especially ones like me living in the third world countries, to which this "strategic thinker" refers to as the gap. The Gap is an area that starts from Pakistan( where I currently live) in the east and goes all the way to Columbia and Venezuela in South America, including all the middle east, Turkey and Africa in between. The crux of the whole book is that the Gap is disconnected from the Globalization and all the terrorists operating in the GAP are enemies of connectedness to globalization. This is why Pentagon is shifting their military capabilities and bases towards the countries in the GAP, under Thomas Barnett's guidance and advice. He also supports his arguments by showing that most of the conflicts, especially involving Pentagon, in the last ten or so years after the collapse of USSR have been in the GAP. He also suggests repeatedly that the world would be better off and progress if United States created a lot of bases like in Germany and Japan, in the book suggests that U.S bases were the major factor in the success of Post war Japan and Germany.
I, however, do disagree with Thomas on several points in the book. For example, the new rule sets that he consistently refer to, is another way of saying that international laws should not be applied to what America does in the third world countries because America is a force for the greatest good in the world OR that Pre-emption in the third world is the only way. Besides The GAP is not so hopelessly disconnected as painted in the book. The book also assumes that for another 25 - 50 years no near-competitor country like India or China would rise to challenge Regional or Global American hegemony. It might be so, that U.S spends a little more that all the other countries combined on their defence budget and has the greatest military industrial complex, but merely 15 years ago USSR was their and its successor Russia has been planning its comeback since then. China, Japan and India are other competitors not to forget EU.
So why is this a must read for us the futurists and all others in the third world country because if Pentagon is listening to him as much he says it is, the future conflicts would mostly be in the third world countries including a lot of U.S bases.

1 comment:

RoseCovered Glasses said...

I am a 2 tour Vietnam Veteran who recently retired after 36 years of working in the Defense Industrial Complex on many of the weapons systems being used by our forces as we speak.

I worked on the Pakistan F-16 Fire Control Radar Program for several years at Northrop Grumman and met many Pakistan officals and Air Force Pilots in the process.

Politicians make no difference.

We have bought into the Military Industrial Complex (MIC). If you would like to read how this happens please see:

http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2007/03/spyagency200703

Through a combination of public apathy and threats by the MIC we have let the SYSTEM get too large. It is now a SYSTEMIC problem and the SYSTEM is out of control. Government and industry are merging and that is very dangerous.

There is no conspiracy. The SYSTEM has gotten so big that those who make it up and run it day to day in industry and government simply are perpetuating their existance.

The politicians rely on them for details and recommendations because they cannot possibly grasp the nuances of the environment and the BIG SYSTEM.

So, the system has to go bust and then be re-scaled, fixed and re-designed to run efficiently and prudently, just like any other big machine that runs poorly or becomes obsolete or dangerous.

This situation will right itself through trauma. I see a government ENRON on the horizon, with an associated house cleaning.

The next president will come and go along with his appointees and politicos. The event to watch is the collapse of the MIC.

For more details see:

http://rosecoveredglasses.blogspot.com/2006/11/inside-pentagon-procurement-from.html